As the calendar crosses into 2024 with a growing population exceeding 8 billion, patterns are shifting globally: from having many children to only one or two, growing grayer as life expectancy increases, slowing overall population growth.
Long-range population growth predictions over hundreds of years are wildly speculative, but how might Ben’s Way help if similar trends continue? Indeed, how might Ben’s Way Funds Generators[i] help in various population forecasts?
Population Projections
The United Nations Projects the Population to reach a peak in 2089 of 10.43 billion, drifting slightly downwards to 10.35 billion people on Earth by 2100.[ii]
It took 123 years to reach 2 billion and only 33 years to reach 3 billion. The last several billion milestones (4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 billion) were reached in 14, 13, 11, 12, and 12 years, respectively. The UN projects that it will take 15 years to reach the 9 billion mark and 21 more years to reach 10 billion.[iii]
Extended-range populations forecasted to the year 2300 are probably a total guess, but nonetheless, projections by the UN have been made. The studies yield estimates range from 2 billion to 26 billion, with the most likely median scenario at 7.5 billion.[iv]
Ben’s Way and ourselves
Could longevity be extended to the point where each seed fund contributing individual might live to 200? Would it benefit if Ben’s Way funds were somehow available for the contributor's use?
The following quote from the book “Ending aging: The rejuvenation breakthroughs that could reverse human aging in our lifetime” bears news relevant to the Ben’s Way multi-century future:
“Nearly all scientists who study the biology of aging agree that we will someday be able to substantially slow down the aging process, extending our productive, youthful lives. Dr. Aubrey de Grey is perhaps the most bullish of all such researchers. As has been reported in media outlets ranging from 60 Minutes to The New York Times, Dr. de Grey believes that the critical biomedical technology required to eliminate aging-derived debilitation and death entirely—technology that would not only slow but periodically reverse age-related physiological decay, leaving us biologically young into an indefinite future—is now within reach.” [v]
The individual looking to amass a great fortune for much later in their lives could do much better than using a form of Ben’s Way method. Ben’s Way will pay higher taxes yearly than individuals. Individuals have many tax saving options: for example, in Canada, a TFSA (Tax-Free Savings Account) or similar instrument shields earnings from taxation.
So, if you want money for your long life’s deep future, keep saving! The bigger picture here is the charities and governments are assisted by Ben's Way payouts, making society better, for ourselves if this anti-aging tech comes in time!
Ben’s Way and our descendants
A steady influx of contributions to charity will help better the society of the future. Ben’s Way will help by creating and encouraging contributions to help future generations.
Our descendants are only partially our descendants. Yes, we may have had something to do with each offspring, but the further in time we go, the less genetic commonality we have. If we assume a new generation every 25-30 years, then after 200 years, six to eight generations pass. Your specific ‘relatedness’ factor drops from 50% of your direct child to between 1.6% and 0.4% related for six to eight generations away - virtually no connection.
Future society will be a mix of all of our genes, and wouldn’t they love to receive financial gifts via Ben’s Way payouts to charity?
Ben’s Way and Population Forecasts
Ben’s Way is designed to support charity. The big question, no matter what the size of the future population, is how well-supported the charities of the future are. Hopefully, the charities are so well funded that Ben’s Way funds are insignificant.
Our only real example was the funds paid out in Ben Franklin’s experiment after his 200-year period ended. These funds were intensely desired. Funds generated in our deep future will be most helpful, especially if we think globally.
Looking at forecasts for the year 2300, a median population of 7.5 billion is forecast - less than today’s 8 billion population. Therefore, dollars per person paid out from Ben's Way Funds Generators will be about the same per person in the future.
If the population is much smaller than today, the dollars from Ben’s Way going to charity per person will increase.
If the population is much larger than today, the dollars from Ben’s Way going to charity per person will decrease. This scenario might seem the least desirable one in terms of payout. However, that does not mean Ben’s Way is not worth doing, suggesting merely starting with more or sticking with the payout growth period longer than in other population scenarios, or both.
Enlarged populations can be good for society. Significant benefits of an increasing population are boosting innovation (more geniuses, more necessity) and the economy (more labour, more consumers). [vi] Ben’s Way can be valuable to any projected population, but perhaps more so in a growing population which may experience growing pains. Just think of the difficulties immigrants and social systems face.
Ben’s Way could have per capita flexibility.
Ben’s Way payouts will typically emphasize growth initially, for example, setting payouts between a quarter or half the investment pot every time the total quadruples in value. Later on, when financial independence for charities is achieved[vii], payouts of three quarters per quadruple would keep a steady stream of large donations coming.
Seed fund contributors could tailor their planned payouts to reflect population patterns. For example, payout plans with growing populations would focus on growing longer. Flat or declining populations could pay more as per capita goals may be reached sooner.
Conclusion
Ben’s Way will be helpful no matter how the populations of Earth evolve. But we need to start as soon as possible to reach financial independence asap for charities. The future will appreciate our forethought, no matter how related they may be to seed fund contributors. The point is, eventually, we are all related.
Let’s build Ben's Way Funds Generators to help our planet’s family thrive.
[i] A Ben’s Way Funds Generator is a proposed organization that invests donated seed funds to grow and repeatedly give portions per the donor’s wishes from the portfolio to charity at various set payout periods or targets. Since infinite time continues after we die, we advocate that society use that time to invest funds to grow more new donations, creating a repeating Funds Generator. The term Ben’s Way attributes the inspiration for Funds Generator plans to Benjamin Frankin. He set up a social impact loan business to last 200 years after his passing via his Last Will and Testament. The business was a socially impactful money lender to young, apprenticed artisans from 1790 to 1990. Ultimately, Franklin's donation and legacy of social impact investments compounded his seed funds into major gifts to Boston and Philadelphia at the 100- and 200-year mark. In 2022 dollars, his roughly $283 thousand invested in 1790 grew to become gifts in 1890 of $11.2 million and $13.9 million in 1990. Learn more here.
[iv] Between 2 and 26 billion? The study projects human population up to 2300 (populationconnection.org)
[vii] Financial Independence for Canadian Charities would be reached when total payouts exceed 25 times annual donations. Today, charities count and try to grow the annual $10 billion in donations. So to be independent in today’s terms, about $250 billion is needed. Starting with seed funds of 5% or about $500 million, independence could be achieved around 100 to 150 years in future. More discussion is available in this article
Photo by Rob Curran on Unsplash